Sink or Swim: Australian Aquaculture and Climate Change

Roisin Sullivan, AgriFutures Australia, 2025 World Food Forum Fellow

Executive Summary

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing agricultural sectors worldwide and is often promoted as a solution to food insecurity. However, climate change is a major barrier to sustainable aquaculture production. In Australia, climate change creates challenging environmental conditions that reduce productivity and increase disease and mortalities. Compared to terrestrial livestock or capture fisheries, aquaculture receives limited policy support for climate adaptation.

To ensure aquaculture isn’t left behind other agricultural industries for climate adaptation, this proposal recommends that the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestries expand its MyClimateView service to include aquaculture. MyClimateView is a localised, individual and interactive web-based tool that supports farm management and climate adaptation for terrestrial agriculture. No similar tool is available for aquaculture despite shared challenges in predicting climate change conditions. Expansion to include aquaculture is estimated to cost $15 million. Key barriers to uptake of this policy include data availability across Australia, delivery timelines and the initial selection of species for the first phase of development. Improving climate forecasting will enable aquaculture producers to anticipate and adapt to climate risks, ultimately safeguarding the health and welfare of aquatic animals whilst supporting the productivity and sustainability of a vital part of Australia’s food landscape.

Problem Identification

Climate change is having far-reaching and aggressive impacts on aquaculture production in Australia and around the world (Maulu et al, 2021). Physical impacts include warming sea-surface temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing ocean acidification and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods, storms and heatwaves (Fisheries Research & Development Corporation, 2021; CSIRO, 2024a). These conditions can reduce animal growth rates (Cubillo et al, 2021), increase disease risk (Karvonen et al, 2010; Sullivan et al, 2025), reduce animal welfare (Falconer et al, 2022), shift farm site locations (Pecl et al, 2011) and increase production costs such as feed and electricity (Islam et al, 2024).

These impacts are already being felt by the Australian aquaculture industry. For the abalone (Haliotis spp.) sector, warmer water temperatures heighten the risk of ‘summer mortality’ syndrome (Stone et al, 2022). An increase of just 2℃ in weekly maximum water temperature doubles the risk of stock losses (Bansemer et al, 2023). Tasmania is experiencing ocean warming two times greater than the global average, pushing farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to their upper thermal limits (Kajtar et al, 2024). In South Australia, a harmful algal bloom since March 2025 has caused over 40,000 marine animal deaths and forced the closure of numerous aquaculture businesses (PIRSA, 2025).

Although aquaculture is Australia’s fastest growing livestock sector (PIRSA, 2023), it remains under-represented in national climate policy. Whilst efforts are being made to make the sector climate-ready at an industry level (Pecl et al, 2019), in comparison to other agricultural industries, more national policy action is required (DAWE, 2022; DAFF, 2023; Ogier et al, 2025). Without adequate support, Australia’s aquaculture industry will ‘go belly-up’ against the environmental, financial and social pressures of climate change.

Context

Background Since the 1980s, aquaculture has become one of the fastest growing animal protein sectors and is a major contributor to global food security (Norwood, 2024; Garlock et al, 2022). Defined by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) as the farming of aquatic organisms including molluscs, crustaceans or finfish and aquatic plants, aquaculture is fundamentally distinct from capture fisheries which is the harvesting of wild aquatic species. Aquaculture is now the major contributor of aquatic animal protein globally, surpassing capture fisheries for the first time in 2022 (FAO, 2024). In Australia, our aquaculture industry has rapidly grown due to high-value sectors such as Atlantic salmon, tuna, abalone and oysters (FRDC, 2025). In 2023-2024, aquaculture contributed over $2 billion in gross value product (GVP) to the $88.3 billion agricultural sector (ABARES, 2025) and has diversified to include more than 40 commercially farmed species within Australia.

Climate change is a major threat to the aquaculture industry, with 90% of all global warming in the last 50 years occurring in marine environments (Rhein et al, 2013). Marine and coastal environments are the primary sites for carbon dioxide absorption from human activities (Shadwick et al, 2023), which has caused mass ocean acidification. In 2025, the Australian government’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) confirmed that aquaculture producers face increasing risk from extreme heat, ocean acidification, marine heatwaves and extreme weather events due to climate change (DCCEEW, 2025a). Whilst clearly recognising climate challenges for aquaculture, the NCRA also emphasised the need for better policies to support productivity and animal health.

Policy Landscape

In September 2025, the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) released the NCRA (DCCEEW, 2025a) and the subsequent National Adaptation Plan (NAP) (DCCEEW, 2025b). The NCRA compiled the current and predicted future climate risks across Australia. It identified major challenges for aquaculture and fisheries including extreme heat, rising sea levels and large-scale changes in ocean conditions. The NCRA also reported that across Australia, natural disasters will increase in intensity and frequency due to climate change. An increase in aquatic disasters such as floods, tropical storms and harmful algal blooms will lead to changes in water quality, potentially causing reduced animal welfare and large economic losses for affected aquaculture sectors. The NCRA recognised that for effective climate adaptation, improved policies are required to support both aquaculture and capture fisheries.

The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestries (DAFF) delivers a variety of programs to support adaptation. These include the Future Drought Program, National Soil Strategy, research and development. The development and delivery of interactive tools like MyClimateView (MyClimateView, 2025a) which was funded through the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) program and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). MyClimateView allows livestock producers and horticulturists to access localised climate modelling for their specific farm areas and commodities. This modelling can then be used to inform on-farm management decisions to prepare accordingly for climate challenges. The tool was developed with the intent of empowering producers to deal with a changing climate (CSIRO, 2024b) and since its delivery in 2021, more than 19,000 individuals have explored the tool (DAFF, 2025a). No similar tool is available for aquaculture despite similar needs for predictive data to inform farm management.

Terrestrial agriculture also benefits from more comprehensive natural disaster support and programs for drought resilience and recovery are well-established for the sector (CSIRO, 2020; DAFF, 2025b). In contrast, aquaculture producers are excluded under Commonwealth disaster funding schemes because marine and aquatic disasters such as algal blooms or hypoxic events are not recognised as natural disasters (NOAA, 2025). This gap was clear with the recent South Australian harmful algal bloom, which was excluded under the Disaster Ready Fund Act 2019 funding scheme (Kelsall, 2025). With the NCRA confirming that extreme weather events and natural disasters will intensify for terrestrial and aquatic environments, consistent disaster coverage is crucial for all food production sectors.

International Case Studies

The climate challenges facing Australian aquaculture are shared internationally. In the European Union, several large-scale research projects have investigated the impacts of climate change for aquaculture. In 2016, more than $9 million was awarded to the ClimeFish consortium from 16 EU countries (ClimeFish, 2020) to deliver forecasting models and climate adaptation plans. The project also developed a framework to design climate adaptation plans for aquaculture which can be applied internationally (Pham et al, 2021). In 2025, the European Union awarded a further $8 million to the ‘Operationalising Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation for Aquaculture’ (OCCAM) project to trial the deployment of practical climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for European aquaculture (OCCAM, 2025). Whilst OCCAM is still in the data-collection phase, these projects highlight the benefits of coordinated and integrated research and policy. Similar initiatives within Australia could advance capacity and productivity for Australian

Policy Options

Aquaculture is vital to Australia’s agriculture sector yet remains vulnerable to climate change. Unlike terrestrial agriculture, aquaculture producers lack access to tailored climate resilience schemes, data and disaster funding. Equitable support across the agricultural sector is key to long-term food security. Success could be measured by reduced animal and capital losses due to climate-related events and increased uptake of adaptation initiatives across the sector.

Policy Option 1: Amend the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (2018) to expand the definition of natural disaster to include aquatic hazards.

This approach expands the definition of a natural disaster to recognise aquatic hazards such as marine heatwaves, harmful algal blooms and sea level rises (NOAA, 2025). This allows the appropriation of funds to assist with disaster recovery initiatives following marine natural disasters and would open up the possibility for resilience and adaptation projects through the Disaster Ready Fund Act 2019 (Cth). The Disaster Ready Fund provides $200 million per annum across Australia for adaptation projects to improve resilience of affected communities or businesses. If the definition of a natural disaster was expanded, aquaculture businesses could apply for funding. However, the fund currently requires a minimum co-contribution of 50% from applicants, which may be prohibitive for small producers.

Policy Option 2: Fund the development of species-specific Climate Adaptation Plans (CAPs) for Australian aquaculture.

Option 2 would introduce climate adaptation plans for Australian aquaculture, equivalent to current initiatives available for capture fisheries (AFMA, 2025). This could be jointly administered by DAFF and DCCEEW, and builds upon similar work for Australian capture fisheries (Fulton et al, 2021) and the $9 million European ClimeFish consortium. Given that ClimeFish created guidelines for the design and development of CAPs for aquaculture industries (Pham et al, 2021), the cost of development for DAFF to deliver the program would be an estimated $600,000. This cost is estimated from the initial $270,000 awarded in 2016 to AFMA by FRDC (FRDC-2016-059) for the fisheries climate adaptation handbook (Fulton et al, 2021) and adjusted to reflect the larger production value of aquaculture compared to capture fisheries. Barriers to uptake include real-world implementation of developed CAPs without specific implementation funding and a long predicted development timeline of up to five years.

Policy Option 3: Expand the Climate Services for Agriculture program to include aquaculture industries in their modelling for Australia’s future climate.

This option expands myclimateview.com.au to include Australian aquaculture sectors such as abalone, oysters, prawns and barramundi in current modelling (ABARES, 2022). Already, much of the required data to inform MyClimateView is collected through BOM, CSIRO (CSIRO, 2024a) and Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS, 2024) to inform other projects such as the NCRA, State of the Climate Report and Australian Climate Services. The original program cost $32 million over four years. Expanding the program to include aquaculture could foreseeably cost $15 million as the tool has already been delivered. If terrestrial producers receive climate-risk modelling for their regions, aquaculturalists deserve the same information to inform decision-making. The major challenges to this are translating off-shore data to on-shore and choosing which of the 40 species farmed in Australian aquaculture are included in the initial expansion.

Policy Recommendation

Option 3 is the most viable option to ensure Australian aquaculture has equal access to climate data and tools as terrestrial agriculture. Climate modelling data would ensure producers can develop relevant selective breeding programs, modify production calendars to minimise climate-related adverse impacts and assist in site selection or modification. This will reduce climate-related losses and ensure Australian aquaculture is highly resilient to climate change.

Figure 1. Launch page of MyClimateView which allows users to select their area of interest and the relevant commodity from a dropdown menu with a visual map.

Figure 2. Initial output following site and commodity selection which shows the changes in environmental conditions to 2050 under two emissions scenarios (medium and high emissions).

Funding and delivery

MyClimateView was initially delivered through the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) program of the Future Drought Fund, costing $32 million over four years (DAFF, 2025c). Although the Fund was established by the Future Drought Fund Act 2019 (Cth) to improve Australia’s drought resilience, the overall investment direction of ‘Better climate information’ is ambiguous and suggestive of broader applications beyond drought resilience (DAFF, 2025d). The 2024-2025 budget has allocated an additional $17 million to continue CSA and MyClimateView for the next four years (DAFF, 2025e). Given that DAFF governs both aquaculture and the CSA program, it would be feasible to extend MyClimateView to include aquatic commodities. A co-investment through the FRDC could help fund the expansion. This would align with the themes of the FRDC 2025-2030 RD&E plan which includes ‘Growing, resilient, and innovative - Ensuring enduring growth and resilience to challenges through innovation’ (DAFF, 2025f). For 2025-2026, FRDC budget estimates indicate $33 million in funding from DAFF to support a resilient seafood industry (DAFF, 2025f). If this could be raised to $48 million for a single financial year it would provide the additional $15 million needed to include aquaculture industries and would result in $32 million for MyClimateView, matching the original MyClimateView investment.

Risks

There are three key barriers to the successful expansion of MyClimateView to include aquaculture. The first barrier is the issue of collecting reliable climate data across remote and challenging regions of Australia. The generation of relevant, accurate and high-level forecasting information can be highly challenging for coastal environments (Staneva et al, 2025). Additionally, achieving this on a national scale may be hindered as models developed for one geographical area may not translate more broadly (Bonino et al, 2024). Another issue lies in which sectors should be included in the initial expansion of MyClimateView. Even now, only approximately 85% of terrestrial agricultural commodities in Australia are currently included in MyClimateView (MyClimateView, 2025b). With over 40 aquaculture species farmed commercially in Australia, it is likely the initial roll-out cannot support all being incorporated immediately (FRDC, 2025). This also doesn't account for potential emerging sectors such as sturgeon (caviar production) which will then require updated modelling (DAFF, 2024). The probable timeline for implementation also presents a barrier. The first MyClimateView took four years to deliver. If a similar timeframe applies for aquaculture, it will further the gap between aquaculture and terrestrial industries for adaptation. This will then have flow-on impacts for aquaculture regulatory processes or the research and development of new broodstock.

Beyond technical and logistical challenges, public perception is the major social risk. Certain aquaculture sectors such as salmonids have previously faced community backlash and the loss of ‘social license to operate’ due to environmental issues (Cullen-Knox et al, 2019). This loss of community support may result in criticism for the funding of adaptation initiatives for private aquaculture enterprises. However, these enterprises should be supported due to the benefits of improving productivity and reducing adverse impacts for aquatic animals, which in itself is distressing for communities. The recent community response to the South Australian harmful algal bloom highlights the distressing impact of mass aquatic animal mortalities on coastal communities (Rebellato, 2025). Whilst concerns for public funding are valid, safeguarding aquatic animal health and welfare in the face of climate change should outweigh these social costs.

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